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arcfinn
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 11
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Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:41 pm Post subject: Odds |
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| Ok does anyone have a good explanation on how to calculate the odds. besides using the odds calculator. I need to learn to do it fast at the table while im playing. and im talking like ok I have AQ what are the odds that I flop A or Q or KJT ? and then what the pot odds mean. I kinda have an idea but im not %100. like ok there is 20 in the pot, the chances of hiting my card are this and its only gonna cost me another 2 to get in. Any good readings on here, on the internet or books? |
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arcfinn
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 11
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Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Sorry I have to add something.I want just basic, and advanced strategy and the one on books and software.thanks! |
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norshvind
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 21
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Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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Well I can give a quick explanation. It's much ahrder to calculate for more than one card at a time, maybe somone can explain the flop to you, but let me just say this.
Your at a 10/20 table, your on the BB, there are 5 callers including you. so so far before the flop you have put in 10 against the 4 callers 40. So POT ODDS are 4-1. You have AA and you want the odds of another A. There are two aces left of the 50 cards you have not seen. Thats 50-2, or 25-1. So in this case you pot odds are much smaller than your hand odds, FOLD. |
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jorpot
Joined: 13 Jan 2006 Posts: 6
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Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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you got the concept right, but that was kind of a bad example...there are only very rare cases when you should fold pocket aces. here's a better explanantion.
you hold J-10 and the flop comes 4-K-Q. you now have an open ended straight draw. In a 10-20 game, lets say 5 people called before the flop, including you. So we now have $55 in the pot. (small blind folded) lets say you are in last position, so the 4 ppl in front of you bet/call again and this brings the pot to 95$. the odds of you making your straight with 2 cards to come is 2.875 to 1. it will cost you 10 to call and there is 95 in the pot, so you are getting 9.5 to 1 on a 2.875 to 1 draw...you've got to call here unless you think you're drawing dead. on the other hand....lets say you hold the same hand and you flopped Q-4-7 and the turn was a K you now have a open ended straight draw with 1 card to come. now lets say there is only 65 in the pot and there are 3 players left besides you, and the 1st guy bets, 2nd guy calls 3rd man raises. which brings the pot to $145. however you now have to call a $40 bet to stay in. so you're getting 3.625 to 1 on your money and the chances you'll catch your straight are 5.75 to 1 so you have to fold....there's not positive expectation there. see what I mean? hope this helps! |
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chris
Joined: 13 Jan 2006 Posts: 20
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Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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aces full i'm a little confused with your example. First of all from your story it sounds as if there are no raises. Well when i'm in the BB i never fold if there are no raises especially if i have AA [Smile]
also, aren't you assuming that your aces will need help when u say only 2 cards in the deck can help you when in fact there are more than 2 cards that could help your hand. (nut str8 and nut flush however these really wouldnt be going through your mind to calculate odds preflop with pp)
I would never fold aces preflop. I guess a caveat to that would be unless i knew i was getting cheated, in which case i wouldn't be playing there any longer |
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johnf
Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 24
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Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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You're not accounting for the turn bet in your example if you are considering drawing all the way to the river. If you make this call then on the big bet rounds your pot odds are effectively cut in half. You end up with 105:20, or 5.25:1, pot odds for the turn(without any calls in front of you). Not trying to nitpick, but it can be very misleading to use the odds for 2 cards to come to decide whether or not to pay for the next card.
I find it easier and more accurate to calculate card odds on per card basis. Actually, I don't calculate the odds on the fly, I've memorized the odds based on a certain number of outs that commonly come up like 6,8,9. You often get proper odds to draw for a small bet but unless there's plenty of money in the pot then often times on the turn you are not getting positive EV odds for a big bet. |
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BigAl
Joined: 16 Jan 2006 Posts: 23
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:44 pm Post subject: |
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| This is where you should get a poker book and have your nose in it for a week or two. There are a lot of good books on odds, caluclating them, and a whole manner of statistics to help you play situations "statistically" better. |
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