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razor



Joined: 21 Dec 2005
Posts: 16
PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:48 pm    Post subject: what is a good winning percentage? Reply with quote

When I've been playing on UB, I look at my stats, mainly to check on the percentage of flops that I've seen. I've started to look at the percentage of hands that I've won on each round, especially the river.
If you make it to the river with a hand, what is a good win percentage?
Of course a 100% is excellent but is this unrealistic? I figure that if I'm winning between 70 to 80 percent of the hands I go to the river with during a session, I'm doing pretty good.
Does anyone else look at it this way or does it just not matter-only your bottom line matters?
Thanks
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chris



Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 20
PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course your bottom line is the most important measure of success in the long run, but those stats would also provide you valuable information.

Assuming the game isn't particularly loose there shouldn't be more than 2 players on the showdown for most hands. So if your win rate on the river is below 50%, you are probably going to the river more often than you should. If this number is quite high (70%-80% like you) and you don't seem to be making the profit you are supposed to make, you are probably tighter than you should be. However, keep in mind that high win rate on the river doesn't allways mean good poker, sometimes the table would be extremly tight and your profits will mostly come from bluffing on the flop and turn; in such games you can win only 30% of your showdowns and still beat the table.
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razor



Joined: 21 Dec 2005
Posts: 16
PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 70-80% is just a general number I've noticed over the past few sessions. I have not payed that close attention to the number of players going to the river with me and I have not related the percentage to how loose/tight a table is or even in relation to a winning or losing session.
I will keep what you said bilo in my mind the next few sessions. Thanks.
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johnf



Joined: 31 Dec 2005
Posts: 24
PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have collected some basic data on around 3000 hands of live and online play. The data is somewhat general since it includes limit and no limit as well as Omaha statisitics. I have a 59% win rate on the river. To me that seems pretty good. I win on average about 2 out of 3 hands that I show down. On the hands where I see a flop, I end up winning the pot 27% (nearly one third) of the time. Unfortunately I didn't break this number up into in the blinds and out of the blinds. I suspect that if I just looked at hands where I voluntarily entered the pot the number might be higher. I am also seeing 30% of the flops, but once again that includes the times I am in the BB and get a free look. I guess if I figure 10% of the time I am in the blind, then I probably see roughly 20% of the flops. I play looser in no limit and in shorthanded games, so if I were to exclude them, I probably see less than 20% of the flops in full limit ring games.
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razor



Joined: 21 Dec 2005
Posts: 16
PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great.Thanks for all the replys.Any other advice on this one.All suggestions are welcome.
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BigAl



Joined: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 23
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anything around 20-30% for seeing the flop is fine, some players will hit 40% though this is generally the sign of a more aggressive player.

80% at the river is a pretty good percentage and shows you're not overestimating your hands and must be reading players pretty well. 100% is very unrealistic unless you wait for a Royal Flush or 4 of a kind before going to the river, anyway!
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