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norshvind
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 21
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:17 pm Post subject: Your thoughts please |
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50+5 SnG @ PStars last night.
QQ in 2nd position. (a little over 3000 in chips)
Blinds 25/50, standard raise on pstars to 250
1 caller in 4th seat, then button raises 1000 more to 1250 all in. Moves around to the small blind who calls the all in for his stack (around 950) big blind who reraises 1200 more to 2650 and is now ALL IN.
I think about it for the 90 seconds they give you and decide to muck.
Player 4 turns over A9 suited, SB turns over KJ suited, BB turns over pocket 10s.
I wouldve made a set on the river but the Qs were good all the way through. KJ won the pot with a flopped Jack.
Good muck or bad play? I figure why gamble even if BB has AK. Didn't want to run into kings either which is highly common on stars. QQ v. KK
Finished SnG in 2nd place.
Your thoughts please? |
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lork
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 18
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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Good fold, with QQ and at least one player all-in you are either way behind, or at best slightly ahead.
Given the exact cards your opponents held, you were only a 36.5% favorite to have the best hand by the river, so even though you have the best hand going in, most of the time you are heading for the rail here.
QQ 36.5%
A9s 24.7%
KJs 23.3%
TT 15.5%
So you are not that big of a favorite over either of the suited hands. Fish will routinely get all their chips in with QQ before the flop, but fish will never be consistent winners. I want to take a flop with queens and see no A's or K's before I would think about going all-in. |
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chris
Joined: 13 Jan 2006 Posts: 20
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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Good muck. Too many ways to get beat. I made this mistake one time with QQ when I called 3 other all-ins. One was very short stack, the second was half my stack and the third had 100 more than me. I think I was around $1500. I figured, mistakenly, that as long as he wasn't the one to win I would still have half my chips if I lost. Well they had KJ, AJ, and AK, respectively. A K on the flop and I was out.
Afterwards I calculated that I had roughly 50% chance to win, the AK had 30-35% chance. Not good enough for me to call all-in. |
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arcfinn
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 11
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| While I do congratulate you on the big laydown, not to sound like a dick, but if you need an answer to this question you probably shouldn't be playing at the $50 SNG's, although I have to say that I would expect better play at the $50 level than three players getting all in pre-flop with such crummy hands. At the $5 and $10 games I would expect this, but at $50? |
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norshvind
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 21
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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oh, i forgot to mention
watched the WPT commerce casino classic from last year and antonia esfandiari called a bet like this with QQ, his opponents had AJ suited and A9 offsuit respectively. He did win and tripled up and wound up taking the 1.4 million 1st prize but since 2 aces were dead, he was in excellent shape to win it. |
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teddyfist
Joined: 24 Dec 2005 Posts: 1
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| I wouldn't even have thought twice about folding that hand. I'd curse to myself about laying down such a sexy hand, then just sit back and watch people get knocked out. |
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pritz
Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 19
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:28 pm Post subject: |
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| You knew the answer to this before you posted the question. But it does illustrate a good fold that most players online cannot make. |
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johnf
Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 24
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Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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This is still early in the tournament.. even though I have a hard time sometimes folding QQ I admit it.. But in this case you are 4th to act.. you can't call this after 3 people already have.. Your hand is best pre-flop but you can't get in a war here.. I'd probably even fold KK if 3 others are already in the hand.. you have to assume one is on AA.. even though they weren't, you have to make the assumption that they are at this point. AA is the only hand I would call this bet with pre-flop.. The risk of losing here is not worth it.. you went on to place 2nd, and even though with that result you would of had this hand and a whole lot of chips, you simply can not call here.
With 3rd best hand and 3 people your hand is dominated.. Tournaments are won through longevity.. not from all in preflop bets in the first few blind levels. |
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