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friscosardines
Joined: 22 Dec 2005 Posts: 5
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Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2005 8:36 pm Post subject: Nuts flush draw. Check, call or raise ? |
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This is position that caused brainstorming discussion on another forum.
2 situations:
1. You limp in with Ace Hearts Ten Hearts after 4 more limpers. BB checks and
5 players see the flop Queen Spade Seven Hearts Four Hearts .
BB checks, UTS bets and all 3 limpers call. What you do ?
2. Same hand, same flop but you are on BB. 5 opponents behind.
What you do now ? |
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jhasper
Joined: 24 Dec 2005 Posts: 5
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Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Assuming this hand to be in a bubble, and you don't care about setting up future plays or table image, I raise that flop all the time. You're close to a 40% chance to win the whole pot, so every extra bet 4 people can put in on the flop is in your favor in the long-run. Playa makes a good point though, and makes me think smooth-calling might be better in case you hit the turn. But if the turn comes heart I think a lot of players, at least the good ones, will fold to one bet, assuming one of the many callers likely made a flush, and will certainly fold to your raise. So I still say raise the flop because it's mathematically with you. Call or check a missed turn. If you hit, some players will be less likely to give you credit for the flush because of the flop raise and pay you off.
I know I said "assuming this hand to be in a bubble," but it's worth mentioning that raising draws does help get you action, even if you're just doing it for rock-like mathematical reasons. |
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